Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (68%). 2 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen by November 30?

2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 32¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 1

Yes32¢No68¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

-$12.8

Research grade

NeutralYes at 32%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 68%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes32%

No68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$64.03

Total Shares200

Combined PnL-$12.8

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
smellyEllieARB<$100	Noavg 56.3¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$138.55	50% 954-964 (1918)
└ No leg	Noavg 56.3¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$223.82
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 38.7¢	$492.86	$407.59	-$85.27
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 63.4¢	$358.23	$285.48	-$44.16	19% 335-1419 (1754)
└ No leg	Noavg 63.4¢	$196.55	$186.28	-$14.96
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 41¢	$127.01	$99.2	-$29.2
PaddyAlphaCTR<$100	Yesavg 35.3¢	$75.13	$55.29	-$3.24	59% 981-676 (1657)
LI lissartterCTR<$100	Yesavg 49.5¢	$80.36	$8.74	-$9.56	42% 5246-7177 (12423)

smellyEllieARB<$100

Invested

$1,567.48

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$138.55

Record

50%

954-964 (1918)

Both legs:

No$1,074.6256.3¢+$223.82

Yes$492.8638.7¢-$85.27

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$358.23

Value

$285.48

PnL

-$44.16

Record

19%

335-1419 (1754)

Both legs:

No$196.5563.4¢-$14.96

Yes$127.0141¢-$29.2

PaddyAlphaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$75.13

Value

$55.29

PnL

-$3.24

Record

59%

981-676 (1657)

lissartterCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$80.36

Value

$8.74

PnL

-$9.56

Record

42%

5246-7177 (12423)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 32%

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 68%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.9%

32.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$195.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

295.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.