Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman by November 30?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 85¢ · $570 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$570.44
$26.08
82.2¢ → 85¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Car | Yesavg 81.1¢ | $450.79 | $387.79 | +$21.61 | 69% 1400-641 (2041) |
 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05 | Yesavg 85.6¢ | $129.95 | $128.99 | -$0.97 | 0% 1-266 (267) |
KL klli27<$100 | Yesavg 82¢ | $30.61 | $31.06 | +$0.45 | 27% 499-1343 (1842) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100 | Noavg 14.9¢ | $30.9 | $22.61 | +$4.99 | 39% 1043-1626 (2669) |
CarInvested
$450.79
Value
$387.79
PnL
+$21.61
Record
69%
1400-641 (2041)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05Invested
$129.95
Value
$128.99
PnL
-$0.97
Record
0%
1-266 (267)
Invested
$30.61
Value
$31.06
PnL
+$0.45
Record
27%
499-1343 (1842)
Invested
$30.9
Value
$22.61
PnL
+$4.99
Record
39%
1043-1626 (2669)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.