Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron by November 30?
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (29%) · Yes at 73¢ · $994 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 29%
$994.23
$162.41
60¢ → 73¢
+22% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 smellyEllie | Yesavg 58.8¢ | $867.24 | $857.03 | +$212.9 | 50% 987-1001 (1988) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100 | Yesavg 74¢ | $74 | $73 | -$1 | 56% 15516-12124 (27640) |
 PaddyAlphaCTR<$100 | Noavg 27.5¢ | $40.14 | $28.62 | -$1.52 | 59% 990-695 (1685) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Noavg 43.1¢ | $41.99 | $10.11 | -$11.68 | 42% 5348-7364 (12712) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $15.2 | $9.4 | -$5.8 | 31% 1408-3193 (4601) |
 IstarothCTR<$100 | Noavg 43.2¢ | $68.82 | $8.82 | -$27.99 | 17% 402-1972 (2374) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Noavg 39¢ | $9.75 | $7.25 | -$2.5 | 23% 178-602 (780) |
smellyEllieInvested
$867.24
Value
$857.03
PnL
+$212.9
Record
50%
987-1001 (1988)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100Invested
$74
Value
$73
PnL
-$1
Record
56%
15516-12124 (27640)
PaddyAlphaCTR<$100Invested
$40.14
Value
$28.62
PnL
-$1.52
Record
59%
990-695 (1685)
Invested
$41.99
Value
$10.11
PnL
-$11.68
Record
42%
5348-7364 (12712)
Invested
$15.2
Value
$9.4
PnL
-$5.8
Record
31%
1408-3193 (4601)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
$68.82
Value
$8.82
PnL
-$27.99
Record
17%
402-1972 (2374)
Invested
$9.75
Value
$7.25
PnL
-$2.5
Record
23%
178-602 (780)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.