Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (61%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk by November 30?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 39¢ · $435 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$434.69
-$11.09
39.6¢ → 39¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 39%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 smellyEllieCTR | Noavg 39.6¢ | $588.74 | $299.59 | +$8.11 | 50% 969-986 (1955) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 63.8¢ | $207 | $117.04 | -$29.16 | 18% 365-1635 (2000) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 63.8¢ | $74.64 | $71.39 | -$17.51 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 47.5¢ | $55.56 | $45.65 | -$11.65 | |
LI lissartterCTR | Noavg 38¢ | $111.18 | $15.38 | -$19 | 42% 5283-7233 (12516) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $2.88 | $2.67 | -$0.21 | 56% 14224-11030 (25254) |
smellyEllieCTRInvested
$588.74
Value
$299.59
PnL
+$8.11
Record
50%
969-986 (1955)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$207
Value
$117.04
PnL
-$29.16
Record
18%
365-1635 (2000)
Both legs:
Invested
$111.18
Value
$15.38
PnL
-$19
Record
42%
5283-7233 (12516)
Invested
$2.88
Value
$2.67
PnL
-$0.21
Record
56%
14224-11030 (25254)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.