Will Trump speak to Andy Burnham by November 30?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 71¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
1 arb excluded
$1.5K
-$10.27
65.8¢ → 71¢
+8% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 smellyEllieARB<$100 | Yesavg 63.6¢ | $938.44 | $1.1K | +$158.97 | 50% 954-964 (1918) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 63.6¢ | $704.87 | $786.75 | +$86.88 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 30.1¢ | $276.75 | $266.22 | +$72.09 | |
 PaddyAlpha | Yesavg 65.4¢ | $469.15 | $352.86 | +$26.31 | 59% 981-676 (1657) |
 Istaroth | Yesavg 70¢ | $154 | $40 | -$31.88 | 19% 335-1419 (1754) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Noavg 35.3¢ | $31.8 | $8.76 | -$4.7 | 42% 5246-7177 (12423) |
smellyEllieARB<$100Invested
$938.44
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$158.97
Record
50%
954-964 (1918)
Both legs:
PaddyAlphaInvested
$469.15
Value
$352.86
PnL
+$26.31
Record
59%
981-676 (1657)
IstarothInvested
$154
Value
$40
PnL
-$31.88
Record
19%
335-1419 (1754)
Invested
$31.8
Value
$8.76
PnL
-$4.7
Record
42%
5246-7177 (12423)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.