Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa by October 31?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 91¢ · $213 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$213.33
$28.26
79¢ → 91¢
+15% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Late
85h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f | Noavg 89¢ | $100 | $102.82 | +$2.82 | 69% 149-68 (217) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $33.5 | $45.75 | +$12.25 | 42% 5246-7177 (12423) |
 Car<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $28.89 | $39.45 | +$10.56 | 67% 4147-2008 (6155) |
 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $16.92 | $23.97 | +$7.05 | 37% 183-316 (499) |
 smellyEllieCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28.8¢ | $5.76 | $1.34 | -$4.42 | 50% 954-964 (1918) |
Invested
$100
Value
$102.82
PnL
+$2.82
Record
69%
149-68 (217)
Invested
$33.5
Value
$45.75
PnL
+$12.25
Record
42%
5246-7177 (12423)
Car<$100Invested
$28.89
Value
$39.45
PnL
+$10.56
Record
67%
4147-2008 (6155)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR<$100Invested
$16.92
Value
$23.97
PnL
+$7.05
Record
37%
183-316 (499)
smellyEllieCTR<$100Invested
$5.76
Value
$1.34
PnL
-$4.42
Record
50%
954-964 (1918)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.