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3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 73¢ · $836 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$836.36
$256.99
65.6¢ → 73¢
+11% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 smellyEllie | Noavg 64.8¢ | $1.5K | $458.5 | +$255.46 | 50% 987-1001 (1988) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 64.5¢ | $251.84 | $222.01 | -$13.83 | 17% 402-1972 (2374) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 64.5¢ | $143.21 | $174.28 | +$31.08 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 39.6¢ | $87.9 | $47.73 | -$44.91 | |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $77 | $73.5 | -$3.5 | 56% 15516-12124 (27640) |
 PaddyAlpha | Noavg 54.7¢ | $174.41 | $45.16 | +$42.56 | 59% 990-695 (1685) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Yesavg 37¢ | $87 | $19.14 | -$13.05 | 31% 1408-3193 (4601) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Yesavg 37.4¢ | $63.87 | $9.69 | -$16.55 | 42% 5348-7364 (12712) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 37¢ | $16.28 | $8.36 | -$7.92 | 23% 178-602 (780) |
smellyEllieInvested
$1,548.92
Value
$458.5
PnL
+$255.46
Record
50%
987-1001 (1988)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$251.84
Value
$222.01
PnL
-$13.83
Record
17%
402-1972 (2374)
Both legs:
ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100Invested
$77
Value
$73.5
PnL
-$3.5
Record
56%
15516-12124 (27640)
PaddyAlphaInvested
$174.41
Value
$45.16
PnL
+$42.56
Record
59%
990-695 (1685)
Invested
$87
Value
$19.14
PnL
-$13.05
Record
31%
1408-3193 (4601)
Invested
$63.87
Value
$9.69
PnL
-$16.55
Record
42%
5348-7364 (12712)
Invested
$16.28
Value
$8.36
PnL
-$7.92
Record
23%
178-602 (780)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.