Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2026?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 97¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

-$178.54

Smart Money Entry

95.9¢ → 97.3¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares1,973

Combined PnL+$27.08

Yes4 traders

Total Value$78.99

Total Shares2,925

Combined PnL-$205.62

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

5022h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE Kevindoto	Noavg 96.2¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$15.16	—
0X 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c	Noavg 96.6¢	$335	$318.53	+$2.28	—
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495	Noavg 91.1¢	$123.51	$131.86	+$8.41	—
Anjun<$100	Noavg 96¢	$93.96	$91.42	+$1.22	—
TR troimCTR	Yesavg 7.5¢	$149.99	$54	-$95.99	—
GohstCTR	Yesavg 15¢	$133.27	$23.99	-$109.28	—
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.2¢	$1.02	$0.86	-$0.18	—
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$0.3	$0.14	-$0.17	—

Kevindoto

Invested

$1,416.45

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$15.16

Record

—

0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c

Invested

$335

Value

$318.53

PnL

+$2.28

Record

—

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495

Invested

$123.51

Value

$131.86

PnL

+$8.41

Record

—

Anjun<$100

Invested

$93.96

Value

$91.42

PnL

+$1.22

Record

—

troimCTR

Yes

Invested

$149.99

Value

$54

PnL

-$95.99

Record

—

GohstCTR

Yes

Invested

$133.27

Value

$23.99

PnL

-$109.28

Record

—

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.02

Value

$0.86

PnL

-$0.18

Record

—

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.3

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$0.17

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

5022h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.4%

97.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.