Will Trump say "Two Percent" during his Midterm Rally in Lubbock, Texas?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 82¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 27

Yes18¢No82¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$314.63

Smart Money Entry

75¢ → 82¢

+9% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 82%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes18%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$853.65

Total Shares1,913

Combined PnL-$580.36

Yes3 traders

Total Value$488.36

Total Shares743

Combined PnL+$265.73

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
bernardbulletin	Noavg 78¢	$1.2K	$529.56	-$650.64	69% 973-443 (1416)
BA badatthis	Noavg 63.6¢	$260.7	$324.08	+$70.28	65% 2211-1176 (3387)
-Dominus-CTR	Yesavg 33.9¢	$167.72	$296.62	+$134.46	69% 340-154 (494)
Barkshire-HathawayCTR	Yesavg 15.8¢	$61.47	$137.95	+$92.48	64% 1080-616 (1696)
smellyEllieCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$60	$53.79	+$38.79	50% 936-948 (1884)

bernardbulletin

Invested

$1,180.2

Value

$529.56

PnL

-$650.64

Record

69%

973-443 (1416)

badatthis

Invested

$260.7

Value

$324.08

PnL

+$70.28

Record

65%

2211-1176 (3387)

-Dominus-CTR

Yes

Invested

$167.72

Value

$296.62

PnL

+$134.46

Record

69%

340-154 (494)

Barkshire-HathawayCTR

Yes

Invested

$61.47

Value

$137.95

PnL

+$92.48

Record

64%

1080-616 (1696)

smellyEllieCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$60

Value

$53.79

PnL

+$38.79

Record

50%

936-948 (1884)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 82%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.6%

82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Mentions 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$19.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.