Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 95¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$1.1K
$15.77
93.7¢ → 95.1¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+14 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Late
3292h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QM QMG-CORE | Noavg 95¢ | $681.84 | $685.29 | +$1.66 | 77% 1408-417 (1825) |
JE Jest55 | Noavg 91.5¢ | $217.45 | $226.93 | +$9 | 75% 1028-338 (1366) |
AV aviato | Noavg 92.6¢ | $137.99 | $141.79 | +$3.8 | 84% 2441-449 (2890) |
DE dedidanc<$100 | Noavg 85.8¢ | $22.31 | $24.82 | +$2.51 | 58% 105-77 (182) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $18.69 | $11.55 | -$1.2 | 76% 11365-3530 (14895) |
Invested
$681.84
Value
$685.29
PnL
+$1.66
Record
77%
1408-417 (1825)
Invested
$217.45
Value
$226.93
PnL
+$9
Record
75%
1028-338 (1366)
Invested
$137.99
Value
$141.79
PnL
+$3.8
Record
84%
2441-449 (2890)
Invested
$22.31
Value
$24.82
PnL
+$2.51
Record
58%
105-77 (182)
Invested
$18.69
Value
$11.55
PnL
-$1.2
Record
76%
11365-3530 (14895)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.