Will Trump not visit China by November 22?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $331 held · ends Nov 23
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$331.14
$0.77
99.2¢ → 99.4¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund | Noavg 99.8¢ | $159.17 | $158.56 | -$0.61 | 32% 2873-6242 (9115) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $80.31 | $80.63 | +$0.32 | 51% 4761-4565 (9326) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $35.38 | $35.93 | +$0.55 | 38% 3366-5404 (8770) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $28.81 | $28.83 | +$0.02 | 79% 473-126 (599) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $19.6 | $19.96 | +$0.36 | 53% 5815-5180 (10995) |
 Dr.mett<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $7.1 | $7.23 | +$0.13 | — 6-1 (7) |
Invested
$159.17
Value
$158.56
PnL
-$0.61
Record
32%
2873-6242 (9115)
balthazar<$100Invested
$80.31
Value
$80.63
PnL
+$0.32
Record
51%
4761-4565 (9326)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$35.38
Value
$35.93
PnL
+$0.55
Record
38%
3366-5404 (8770)
Invested
$28.81
Value
$28.83
PnL
+$0.02
Record
79%
473-126 (599)
Invested
$19.6
Value
$19.96
PnL
+$0.36
Record
53%
5815-5180 (10995)
Dr.mett<$100Invested
$7.1
Value
$7.23
PnL
+$0.13
Record
—
6-1 (7)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.