Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy by November 30, 2026?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 85¢ · $559 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$559.1
$81.1
79.8¢ → 84.5¢
+6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Noavg 82.1¢ | $268.54 | $247.99 | -$4.76 | 19% 319-1318 (1637) |
 smellyEllieCTR | Yesavg 13.6¢ | $80.72 | $165.78 | +$85.06 | 50% 953-962 (1915) |
 zxdfbdfgngcxv | Noavg 77.5¢ | $100.7 | $97.5 | -$3.85 | 82% 1734-388 (2122) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 75.6¢ | $58.94 | $25.48 | +$3.49 | 42% 5221-7152 (12373) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $17.65 | $20.03 | +$2.38 | 56% 15312-11850 (27162) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23.7¢ | $3.54 | $2.32 | -$1.22 | 57% 13809-10582 (24391) |
IstarothInvested
$268.54
Value
$247.99
PnL
-$4.76
Record
19%
319-1318 (1637)
smellyEllieCTRInvested
$80.72
Value
$165.78
PnL
+$85.06
Record
50%
953-962 (1915)
zxdfbdfgngcxvInvested
$100.7
Value
$97.5
PnL
-$3.85
Record
82%
1734-388 (2122)
Invested
$58.94
Value
$25.48
PnL
+$3.49
Record
42%
5221-7152 (12373)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100Invested
$17.65
Value
$20.03
PnL
+$2.38
Record
56%
15312-11850 (27162)
Invested
$3.54
Value
$2.32
PnL
-$1.22
Record
57%
13809-10582 (24391)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.