Will Trump meet with Sam Altman by November 30, 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 76¢ · $500 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$499.92
$193.19
68.5¢ → 75.5¢
+10% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+10 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 smellyEllie | Noavg 65.5¢ | $1.1K | $348.12 | +$208.38 | 50% 987-1001 (1988) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $84 | $75.5 | -$8.5 | 56% 15523-12137 (27660) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 66.2¢ | $98.73 | $55.8 | +$2.58 | 42% 5357-7373 (12730) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 37¢ | $29.6 | $12.25 | -$1.85 | 16% 247-1263 (1510) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Yesavg 36¢ | $11.88 | $8.25 | -$7.43 | 30% 1409-3213 (4622) |
smellyEllieInvested
$1,109.61
Value
$348.12
PnL
+$208.38
Record
50%
987-1001 (1988)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100Invested
$84
Value
$75.5
PnL
-$8.5
Record
56%
15523-12137 (27660)
Invested
$98.73
Value
$55.8
PnL
+$2.58
Record
42%
5357-7373 (12730)
Invested
$29.6
Value
$12.25
PnL
-$1.85
Record
16%
247-1263 (1510)
Invested
$11.88
Value
$8.25
PnL
-$7.43
Record
30%
1409-3213 (4622)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.