Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by November 30, 2026?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 69¢ · $864 held · ends Dec 1

Yes31¢No69¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$864.26

Combined PnL

$42.48

Smart Money Entry

80.2¢ → 69.1¢

-14% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$461.73

Total Shares689

Combined PnL-$134.22

Yes2 traders

Total Value$402.54

Total Shares1,303

Combined PnL+$176.7

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
zxdfbdfgngcxv	Noavg 79.7¢	$517.24	$421.73	-$95.52	82% 1734-388 (2122)
smellyEllieCTR	Yesavg 11.9¢	$205.76	$331.37	+$145.97	50% 953-962 (1915)
KimchiCapitalCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$38.36	$71.16	+$30.73	76% 528-164 (692)
Istaroth	Noavg 88.6¢	$200.92	$40	-$38.71	20% 318-1310 (1628)

zxdfbdfgngcxv

Invested

$517.24

Value

$421.73

PnL

-$95.52

Record

82%

1734-388 (2122)

smellyEllieCTR

Yes

Invested

$205.76

Value

$331.37

PnL

+$145.97

Record

50%

953-962 (1915)

KimchiCapitalCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$38.36

Value

$71.16

PnL

+$30.73

Record

76%

528-164 (692)

Istaroth

Invested

$200.92

Value

$40

PnL

-$38.71

Record

20%

318-1310 (1628)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.9%

69.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$40.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.