Will Trump meet with Javier Milei by November 30, 2026?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 89¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$1.2K
$61.76
86.5¢ → 89¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Udonsan | Noavg 86.5¢ | $842.67 | $881.14 | +$39.45 | 79% 242-66 (308) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 88.8¢ | $722.62 | $325.03 | -$27.7 | 18% 364-1623 (1987) |
 smellyEllie | Noavg 71.7¢ | $189.87 | $36.18 | +$49.48 | 50% 966-983 (1949) |
 zxdfbdfgngcxv<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $3.93 | $4.61 | +$0.54 | 82% 1755-393 (2148) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.