Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (17%) · No at 59¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 17%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
-$30.88
Research grade
NeutralNo at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 zxdfbdfgngcxv | Noavg 57.8¢ | $480.34 | $480.34 | +$0 | 82% 1729-386 (2115) |
 smellyEllieCTR | Yesavg 45¢ | $299.22 | $269.41 | -$26.02 | 50% 936-948 (1884) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 51.8¢ | $158.59 | $137.4 | -$5.06 | 29% 280-697 (977) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 48.1¢ | $66.9 | $80.41 | +$10 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 51.8¢ | $72.05 | $56.99 | -$15.06 | |
 Barkshire-HathawayCTR<$100 | Yesavg 41.1¢ | $74 | $73.8 | +$6.1 | 64% 1080-616 (1696) |
 Rex416CTR<$100 | Yesavg 41¢ | $45.1 | $45.1 | +$0 | 57% 2504-1903 (4407) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Yesavg 45.1¢ | $48.47 | $36.71 | -$3.76 | 42% 5191-7110 (12301) |
 bernardbulletinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 50.5¢ | $40.4 | $33.2 | -$7.2 | 69% 973-443 (1416) |
zxdfbdfgngcxvInvested
$480.34
Value
$480.34
PnL
+$0
Record
82%
1729-386 (2115)
smellyEllieCTRInvested
$299.22
Value
$269.41
PnL
-$26.02
Record
50%
936-948 (1884)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$158.59
Value
$137.4
PnL
-$5.06
Record
29%
280-697 (977)
Both legs:
Barkshire-HathawayCTR<$100Invested
$74
Value
$73.8
PnL
+$6.1
Record
64%
1080-616 (1696)
Rex416CTR<$100Invested
$45.1
Value
$45.1
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
2504-1903 (4407)
Invested
$48.47
Value
$36.71
PnL
-$3.76
Record
42%
5191-7110 (12301)
bernardbulletinCTR<$100Invested
$40.4
Value
$33.2
PnL
-$7.2
Record
69%
973-443 (1416)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.