Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu by November 30, 2026?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 70¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 1
🔬
Research candidate
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$2.2K
-$18.51
61.1¢ → 69.5¢
+14% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
Research candidateNo at 70%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Mature
18h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Udonsan | Noavg 58.9¢ | $685.2 | $769.95 | +$84.75 | 79% 242-66 (308) |
 smellyEllieCTR | Yesavg 41.8¢ | $849.32 | $468.75 | -$143.07 | 50% 966-983 (1949) |
 zxdfbdfgngcxv | Noavg 64¢ | $325.62 | $371.62 | +$25.64 | 82% 1755-393 (2148) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 66.7¢ | $437.28 | $371.02 | +$8.43 | 18% 364-1623 (1987) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 66.7¢ | $233.46 | $255.52 | +$20.65 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 36.5¢ | $127.88 | $115.5 | -$12.22 | |
 clazzy1 | Noavg 64.4¢ | $184.84 | $201.88 | +$14.18 | 62% 410-249 (659) |
UdonsanInvested
$685.2
Value
$769.95
PnL
+$84.75
Record
79%
242-66 (308)
smellyEllieCTRInvested
$849.32
Value
$468.75
PnL
-$143.07
Record
50%
966-983 (1949)
zxdfbdfgngcxvInvested
$325.62
Value
$371.62
PnL
+$25.64
Record
82%
1755-393 (2148)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$437.28
Value
$371.02
PnL
+$8.43
Record
18%
364-1623 (1987)
Both legs:
clazzy1Invested
$184.84
Value
$201.88
PnL
+$14.18
Record
62%
410-249 (659)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.