Will Trump insult Hegseth by December 31?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 94¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
$2.1K
$57.3
90.3¢ → 93.5¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 paddaa | Noavg 90.4¢ | $2.4K | $2.0K | +$86.6 | 60% 497-335 (832) |
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $37.97 | $22.78 | -$15.19 | 50% 23-23 (46) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $27.28 | $22 | -$2.4 | 4% 1-24 (25) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $11.4 | $6.84 | -$4.56 | — 1-18 (19) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $8.36 | $4.56 | -$3.8 | 15% 3-17 (20) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $6.24 | $2.88 | -$3.36 | 12% 18-127 (145) |
paddaaInvested
$2,450
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$86.6
Record
60%
497-335 (832)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$37.97
Value
$22.78
PnL
-$15.19
Record
50%
23-23 (46)
Invested
$27.28
Value
$22
PnL
-$2.4
Record
4%
1-24 (25)
Invested
$11.4
Value
$6.84
PnL
-$4.56
Record
—
1-18 (19)
Invested
$8.36
Value
$4.56
PnL
-$3.8
Record
15%
3-17 (20)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$6.24
Value
$2.88
PnL
-$3.36
Record
12%
18-127 (145)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.