Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (57%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2027?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 43¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
1 arb excluded
$2.0K
$58.51
40.8¢ → 43¢
+5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Mature
44h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GD GdubCTR | Noavg 40.5¢ | $809.98 | $839.98 | +$30 | 69% 631-287 (918) |
 StarMasterCTR | Noavg 47.2¢ | $538.01 | $420 | -$65 | 53% 1931-1707 (3638) |
 HaradwaithARB<$100 | Yesavg 56.2¢ | $447.48 | $302.49 | -$3.24 | 40% 6569-9849 (16418) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 56.2¢ | $221.86 | $225.21 | +$4.95 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 44¢ | $80.96 | $77.28 | -$8.2 | |
 TBill1CTR | Noavg 27.8¢ | $83.37 | $126 | +$46.5 | 44% 170-218 (388) |
 UbuntuTrading | Yesavg 57¢ | $114 | $114 | -$0 | 55% 3185-2637 (5822) |
SE SeniorLaghetto | Yesavg 54¢ | $530.24 | $106.31 | +$23.56 | 68% 425-199 (624) |
MA mamboNB5<$100 | Yes | $58.56 | $58.56 | +$3.6 | 66% 245-129 (374) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Noavg 13¢ | $8.45 | $27.29 | +$19.17 | 17% 4506-22058 (26564) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Noavg 42.2¢ | $21.9 | $22.59 | +$0.68 | 77% 12723-3885 (16608) |
Invested
$809.98
Value
$839.98
PnL
+$30
Record
69%
631-287 (918)
StarMasterCTRInvested
$538.01
Value
$420
PnL
-$65
Record
53%
1931-1707 (3638)
HaradwaithARB<$100Invested
$447.48
Value
$302.49
PnL
-$3.24
Record
40%
6569-9849 (16418)
Both legs:
TBill1CTRInvested
$83.37
Value
$126
PnL
+$46.5
Record
44%
170-218 (388)
UbuntuTradingInvested
$114
Value
$114
PnL
-$0
Record
55%
3185-2637 (5822)
Invested
$530.24
Value
$106.31
PnL
+$23.56
Record
68%
425-199 (624)
Invested
$58.56
Value
$58.56
PnL
+$3.6
Record
66%
245-129 (374)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$8.45
Value
$27.29
PnL
+$19.17
Record
17%
4506-22058 (26564)
Invested
$21.9
Value
$22.59
PnL
+$0.68
Record
77%
12723-3885 (16608)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.