Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus?
9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $5 held · ends Dec 31
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
9
Yes 100%
$4.59
-$173.4
1.9¢ → 0.1¢
-95% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Late
572h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
18 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 smellyEllieCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $7.23 | $1.81 | -$5.42 | 50% 936-948 (1884) |
 PorxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $15.44 | $1.62 | -$13.82 | 66% 1458-756 (2214) |
0X 0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50ABCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.7¢ | $37.95 | $0.28 | -$37.67 | 58% 100-71 (171) |
KL klli27CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.7¢ | $28.2 | $0.21 | -$27.99 | 31% 286-635 (921) |
AL alex20011CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.7¢ | $25.22 | $0.19 | -$25.03 | 48% 3413-3685 (7098) |
KA kaxel78CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.7¢ | $25.22 | $0.19 | -$25.03 | 30% 255-588 (843) |
LI LikaseentCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.7¢ | $20.86 | $0.16 | -$20.7 | 29% 188-471 (659) |
AK akrollCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.7¢ | $9.46 | $0.07 | -$9.39 | 32% 312-665 (977) |
VA Vale54holiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.7¢ | $8.42 | $0.06 | -$8.36 | 28% 161-410 (571) |
smellyEllieCTR<$100Invested
$7.23
Value
$1.81
PnL
-$5.42
Record
50%
936-948 (1884)
PorxCTR<$100Invested
$15.44
Value
$1.62
PnL
-$13.82
Record
66%
1458-756 (2214)
Invested
$37.95
Value
$0.28
PnL
-$37.67
Record
58%
100-71 (171)
Invested
$28.2
Value
$0.21
PnL
-$27.99
Record
31%
286-635 (921)
Invested
$25.22
Value
$0.19
PnL
-$25.03
Record
48%
3413-3685 (7098)
Invested
$25.22
Value
$0.19
PnL
-$25.03
Record
30%
255-588 (843)
Invested
$20.86
Value
$0.16
PnL
-$20.7
Record
29%
188-471 (659)
Invested
$9.46
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$9.39
Record
32%
312-665 (977)
Invested
$8.42
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$8.36
Record
28%
161-410 (571)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.