Will Tottenham Hotspur be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 92¢ · $4K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$3.9K
$183.89
88.2¢ → 91.5¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LE leegunner | Noavg 84.9¢ | $1.7K | $1.8K | +$163.94 | 41% 1278-1824 (3102) |
CH chongchongpanda | Noavg 93.2¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$4.29 | 75% 15-5 (20) |
 probability | Noavg 81.6¢ | $273.71 | $306.97 | +$38.29 | 41% 1359-1916 (3275) |
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 7.8¢ | $136.7 | $148.91 | -$14.05 | 42% 1963-2767 (4730) |
Invested
$1,709.97
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$163.94
Record
41%
1278-1824 (3102)
Invested
$1,643.88
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$4.29
Record
75%
15-5 (20)
probabilityInvested
$273.71
Value
$306.97
PnL
+$38.29
Record
41%
1359-1916 (3275)
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$136.7
Value
$148.91
PnL
-$14.05
Record
42%
1963-2767 (4730)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.