Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (95%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia be less than 2,500,000?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 4.8¢ · $29 held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
3
Yes 100%
$28.55
-$101.28
13.2¢ → 4.8¢
-64% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 5%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SH shiifooCTR | Yesavg 13.3¢ | $125.99 | $27.38 | -$98.62 | 59% 3601-2502 (6103) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.5¢ | $2.5 | $0.58 | -$1.92 | 25% 1618-4828 (6446) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.5¢ | $16.2 | $0.47 | -$0.75 | 27% 6132-16260 (22392) |
Invested
$125.99
Value
$27.38
PnL
-$98.62
Record
59%
3601-2502 (6103)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$0.58
PnL
-$1.92
Record
25%
1618-4828 (6446)
Invested
$16.2
Value
$0.47
PnL
-$0.75
Record
27%
6132-16260 (22392)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
4.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.