Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (96%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia be between 3,000,000 and 3,250,000?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 4.3¢ · $137 held · ended Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$136.87
-$68.34
12.5¢ → 4.3¢
-65% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 4%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Late
75h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 92.5¢ | $83.46 | $75.49 | -$6.43 | 40% 6512-9780 (16292) |
SH shiifooCTR | Yesavg 13.6¢ | $121.19 | $48.84 | -$72.35 | 47% 4058-4609 (8667) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.6¢ | $2.64 | $7.81 | +$10.46 | 45% 2965-3664 (6629) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.4¢ | $4.48 | $1.98 | -$2.5 | 17% 4496-22003 (26499) |
 viniiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.5¢ | $2.35 | $1.73 | +$3.22 | 73% 3098-1126 (4224) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.1¢ | $1.63 | $0.89 | -$0.74 | 26% 7302-21086 (28388) |
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$83.46
Value
$75.49
PnL
-$6.43
Record
40%
6512-9780 (16292)
Invested
$121.19
Value
$48.84
PnL
-$72.35
Record
47%
4058-4609 (8667)
Invested
$2.64
Value
$7.81
PnL
+$10.46
Record
45%
2965-3664 (6629)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$4.48
Value
$1.98
PnL
-$2.5
Record
17%
4496-22003 (26499)
viniiCTR<$100Invested
$2.35
Value
$1.73
PnL
+$3.22
Record
73%
3098-1126 (4224)
Invested
$1.63
Value
$0.89
PnL
-$0.74
Record
26%
7302-21086 (28388)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
4.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.