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Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Texas be between 10,000,000 and 10,400,000?
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ends Nov 4
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Open
Consensus Traders
0
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$224.33
Combined PnL
$0
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Yes37%
No63%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 71.4¢ | $242.97 | $224.33 | -$10.02 | 17% 402-1972 (2374) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 71.4¢ | $170.86 | $150.65 | -$20.28 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 29.1¢ | $57.99 | $73.68 | +$10.26 |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
Break-even chance38.9%
37.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
Expected Value—
Expected ROIenter your estimate
Max Profit
+$156.79
Max Loss
-$100.00
Shares
256.8
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Condition ID
0x23e7b773...2b627d
Slug
will-total-votes-cast-in-the-2026-midterm-election-for-senator-from-texas-be-between-10000000-and-10400000