Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (71%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Ohio be between 4,500,000 and 4,650,000?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 29¢ · $342 held · ends Nov 4

Yes29¢No71¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$341.6

Combined PnL

$152.88

Smart Money Entry

14¢ → 28.9¢

+106% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 29%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes29%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$290.4

Total Shares991

Combined PnL+$153.52

No3 traders

Total Value$51.2

Total Shares70

Combined PnL-$0.64

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
musicenthusiastCTR	Yesavg 14¢	$135.42	$286.55	+$151.13	58% 352-256 (608)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 79.8¢	$31.94	$29.2	-$2.74	21% 2284-8698 (10982)
SU SulkingCrypto	Noavg 84.7¢	$141.91	$14.6	+$2.12	23% 178-602 (780)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 73.2¢	$7.42	$7.4	-$0.02	35% 710-1327 (2037)
EsperanzasDESTROYERCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.9¢	$1.46	$3.85	+$2.38	58% 55-40 (95)

musicenthusiastCTR

Yes

Invested

$135.42

Value

$286.55

PnL

+$151.13

Record

58%

352-256 (608)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$31.94

Value

$29.2

PnL

-$2.74

Record

21%

2284-8698 (10982)

SulkingCrypto

Invested

$141.91

Value

$14.6

PnL

+$2.12

Record

23%

178-602 (780)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$7.42

Value

$7.4

PnL

-$0.02

Record

35%

710-1327 (2037)

EsperanzasDESTROYERCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.46

Value

$3.85

PnL

+$2.38

Record

58%

55-40 (95)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 29%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.8%

28.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$224.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

324.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.