Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (60%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Kansas be between 1,100,000 and 1,200,000?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 41¢ · $770 held · ends Nov 4

Yes41¢No59¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$769.99

Combined PnL

$220.01

Smart Money Entry

21.3¢ → 40.5¢

+90% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$308.1

Total Shares800

Combined PnL+$186.01

No2 traders

Total Value$242

Total Shares400

Combined PnL+$34

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EsperanzasDESTROYERCTR	Yesavg 20.5¢	$111.6	$298.48	+$186.88	56% 45-35 (80)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 58.3¢	$270.92	$219.89	-$9.17	23% 288-966 (1254)
└ No leg	Noavg 58.3¢	$128.17	$135.23	+$5.94
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 45.3¢	$99.72	$84.66	-$15.11
SI singularityman	Noavg 44¢	$88	$123	+$23	42% 137-192 (329)
SH shiifoo	Noavg 54¢	$108	$119	+$11	60% 3288-2207 (5495)
viniiCTR<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$10.5	$9.63	-$0.88	74% 2716-975 (3691)

EsperanzasDESTROYERCTR

Yes

Invested

$111.6

Value

$298.48

PnL

+$186.88

Record

56%

45-35 (80)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$270.92

Value

$219.89

PnL

-$9.17

Record

23%

288-966 (1254)

Both legs:

No$128.1758.3¢+$5.94

Yes$99.7245.3¢-$15.11

singularityman

Invested

$88

Value

$123

PnL

+$23

Record

42%

137-192 (329)

shiifoo

Invested

$108

Value

$119

PnL

+$11

Record

60%

3288-2207 (5495)

viniiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.5

Value

$9.63

PnL

-$0.88

Record

74%

2716-975 (3691)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 41%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.5%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$135.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

235.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.