Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (79%). 1 of 1 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Florida be between 7,750,000 and 8,000,000?
Positions of the top Polymarket traders in this market · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
1
Yes 100%
1 arb excluded
$436.91
-$25.27
Research grade
AvoidYes at 21%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 1 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 84.4¢ | $406.79 | $400.01 | -$6.68 | 29% 279-667 (946) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 84.4¢ | $337.6 | $317.6 | -$20 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 17.3¢ | $69.09 | $82.41 | +$13.32 | |
 EsperanzasDESTROYERCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24.8¢ | $54.48 | $36.9 | -$25.27 | 56% 44-35 (79) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
20.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.