Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas be between 975,000 and 1,050,000?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.8¢ · $4 held · ended Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$3.94
-$74.6
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+17 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Late
526h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
5 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SH shiifooCTR | Yesavg 12.1¢ | $504.56 | $1.77 | -$39.88 | 47% 4058-4608 (8666) |
AN anoin123CTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $18.53 | $1.24 | -$17.45 | 45% 529-655 (1184) |
NO northdrawerCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.39 | $0.39 | -$5.64 | 58% 16807-12135 (28942) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 13.8¢ | $34.54 | $0.37 | -$9.18 | 26% 7290-21071 (28361) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0¢ | $0 | $0.17 | -$2.46 | 26% 562-1631 (2193) |
Invested
$504.56
Value
$1.77
PnL
-$39.88
Record
47%
4058-4608 (8666)
Invested
$18.53
Value
$1.24
PnL
-$17.45
Record
45%
529-655 (1184)
Invested
$0.39
Value
$0.39
PnL
-$5.64
Record
58%
16807-12135 (28942)
Invested
$34.54
Value
$0.37
PnL
-$9.18
Record
26%
7290-21071 (28361)
Invested
$0
Value
$0.17
PnL
-$2.46
Record
26%
562-1631 (2193)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.