Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas be between 900,000 and 975,000?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 54¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
2
Yes 100%
$2.7K
-$83.3
52.7¢ → 54¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN anoin123 | Yesavg 57.3¢ | $2.7K | $2.4K | -$293.7 | 47% 462-527 (989) |
 EsperanzasDESTROYER | Yesavg 19.8¢ | $124.27 | $334.67 | +$210.4 | 56% 46-36 (82) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.