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NoNoYesYesYes
Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Vermont be between 225,000 and 250,000?
Resolved No. 40% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.
RESOLVED
🏆
Won
Consensus Traders
5
No 100%
Total Value
$22.92
Combined PnL
-$2.81
Smart Money Signal
No
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No2 traders
Total Value$22.92
Total Shares23
Combined PnL-$2.81
Yes3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
No — 40%Yes — 60%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN anciano<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $22.9 | $22.92 | +$0.02 | — |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $19.98 | — | -$2.84 | 30% 2984-7093 (10077) |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $0 | — | +$0 | 20% 99-387 (486) |
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $0 | — | +$0 | 19% 114-491 (605) |
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $0 | — | +$0 | 29% 911-2193 (3104) |
AN
anciano<$100Invested
$22.9
Value
$22.92
PnL
+$0.02
Record
—
QW
qwen300.fund<$100Invested
$19.98
Value
—
PnL
-$2.84
Record
30%
2984-7093 (10077)
GO
god83743894CTR<$100Invested
$0
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
20%
99-387 (486)
SM
smallreceiptCTR<$100Invested
$0
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
19%
114-491 (605)
MI
mildwindow27CTR<$100Invested
$0
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
29%
911-2193 (3104)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x55f42636...20b5f6
Slug
will-total-votes-cast-in-the-2026-midterm-election-for-governor-of-vermont-be-between-225000-and-250000