Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii be between 370,000 and 400,000?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 73¢ · $316 held · ends Nov 4

Yes27¢No73¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$316.04

Combined PnL

-$7.98

Smart Money Entry

73.4¢ → 73¢

-1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 8 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes27%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$316.04

Total Shares372

Combined PnL-$7.98

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Noavg 76.6¢	$236.76	$152.24	-$7.92	17% 393-1939 (2332)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 68.7¢	$48.4	$54.21	+$5.8	21% 2257-8431 (10688)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 71¢	$28.4	$27.4	-$1	50% 9031-9106 (18137)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 71¢	$26.98	$26.03	-$0.95	63% 12918-7608 (20526)
SH shiifoo<$100	Noavg 74.7¢	$26.15	$23.98	-$2.17	59% 3551-2461 (6012)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 66.5¢	$13.3	$13.7	+$0.4	50% 7785-7688 (15473)
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100	Noavg 79¢	$15.8	$13.7	-$2.1	56% 5852-4578 (10430)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 69¢	$4.83	$4.8	-$0.04	28% 5949-15562 (21511)

Istaroth

Invested

$236.76

Value

$152.24

PnL

-$7.92

Record

17%

393-1939 (2332)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$48.4

Value

$54.21

PnL

+$5.8

Record

21%

2257-8431 (10688)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$28.4

Value

$27.4

PnL

-$1

Record

50%

9031-9106 (18137)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$26.98

Value

$26.03

PnL

-$0.95

Record

63%

12918-7608 (20526)

shiifoo<$100

Invested

$26.15

Value

$23.98

PnL

-$2.17

Record

59%

3551-2461 (6012)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$13.3

Value

$13.7

PnL

+$0.4

Record

50%

7785-7688 (15473)

0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100

Invested

$15.8

Value

$13.7

PnL

-$2.1

Record

56%

5852-4578 (10430)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$4.83

Value

$4.8

PnL

-$0.04

Record

28%

5949-15562 (21511)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 8 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.8%

73.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$33.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

133.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.