Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 12 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Torreense finish first in UEL league phase?

12 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $400 held · ends Feb 28, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Feb 28, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$400.29

Combined PnL

$93.67

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes12 traders

Total Value$400.29

Total Shares3,317

Combined PnL+$93.67

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BiggggggggCTR	Yes	$205.07	$205.07	-$39.02	31% 3266-7124 (10390)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.1	$79.68	+$79.58	47% 3836-4297 (8133)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$8.92	$49	+$40.08	40% 6547-9828 (16375)
thefakenickCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$8.53	$25.22	-$4.8	50% 924-909 (1833)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$1.14	$11.27	-$2.14	23% 1798-6043 (7841)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.03	$8.7	+$8.67	27% 2536-6889 (9425)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.03	$6.13	+$6.09	17% 1350-6561 (7911)
P1 P1kasoCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.9¢	$0.87	$5.59	+$4.73	61% 863-547 (1410)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.02	$5.51	-$1.05	49% 6577-6937 (13514)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.02	$2.45	+$2.43	16% 387-1970 (2357)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yes	$1.65	$1.65	-$0.31	25% 471-1448 (1919)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0.61	$0.03	-$0.58	28% 576-1486 (2062)

BiggggggggCTR

Yes

Invested

$205.07

Value

$205.07

PnL

-$39.02

Record

31%

3266-7124 (10390)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.1

Value

$79.68

PnL

+$79.58

Record

47%

3836-4297 (8133)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.92

Value

$49

PnL

+$40.08

Record

40%

6547-9828 (16375)

thefakenickCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.53

Value

$25.22

PnL

-$4.8

Record

50%

924-909 (1833)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.14

Value

$11.27

PnL

-$2.14

Record

23%

1798-6043 (7841)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$8.7

PnL

+$8.67

Record

27%

2536-6889 (9425)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$6.13

PnL

+$6.09

Record

17%

1350-6561 (7911)

P1kasoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.87

Value

$5.59

PnL

+$4.73

Record

61%

863-547 (1410)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$5.51

PnL

-$1.05

Record

49%

6577-6937 (13514)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$2.45

PnL

+$2.43

Record

16%

387-1970 (2357)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.65

Value

$1.65

PnL

-$0.31

Record

25%

471-1448 (1919)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.61

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.58

Record

28%

576-1486 (2062)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 12 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.