Will Tomáš Rec be the next Mayor of Liberec?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 98¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$1.4K
-$172.19
96.1¢ → 98¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 archaic | Noavg 97.7¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$4.88 | 85% 1897-339 (2236) |
 Nadmi<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $15.96 | $38.14 | +$22.18 | 47% 2036-2256 (4292) |
 RelaccsedCTR | Yesavg 33¢ | $127.44 | $7.72 | -$119.72 | 56% 1207-961 (2168) |
 paddaaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23.6¢ | $86.9 | $7.37 | -$79.53 | 57% 828-637 (1465) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.