Will Together win 7-9% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 87¢ · $595 held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$594.87
$16.39
64.6¢ → 86.5¢
+34% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x25db6cA5935ae858A5c1F2dCD5c62939805328dE-1770665598557 | Noavg 64.4¢ | $254.35 | $274.29 | +$19.94 | 28% 49-125 (174) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 66.4¢ | $107.62 | $132.01 | +$24.39 | 53% 6325-5540 (11865) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 65.3¢ | $209.79 | $105.2 | -$29.63 | 27% 281-771 (1052) |
ME melonmanmCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18.4¢ | $55.43 | $55.86 | +$0.42 | 65% 484-260 (744) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 58.2¢ | $26.26 | $27.51 | +$1.26 | 42% 5194-7118 (12312) |
Invested
$254.35
Value
$274.29
PnL
+$19.94
Record
28%
49-125 (174)
Invested
$107.62
Value
$132.01
PnL
+$24.39
Record
53%
6325-5540 (11865)
IstarothInvested
$209.79
Value
$105.2
PnL
-$29.63
Record
27%
281-771 (1052)
Invested
$55.43
Value
$55.86
PnL
+$0.42
Record
65%
484-260 (744)
Invested
$26.26
Value
$27.51
PnL
+$1.26
Record
42%
5194-7118 (12312)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.