Will Todd Blanche be the first of these people impeached by December 31, 2027?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $182 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$182.44
$0.04
99.9¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $76.55 | $76.57 | +$0.02 | 44% 1081-1380 (2461) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $59.94 | $59.94 | +$0 | 29% 866-2137 (3003) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $23.86 | $23.88 | +$0.02 | 40% 644-964 (1608) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $20.98 | $20.98 | +$0 | 78% 298-83 (381) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $1.07 | $1.07 | +$0 | 41% 324-472 (796) |
Invested
$76.55
Value
$76.57
PnL
+$0.02
Record
44%
1081-1380 (2461)
Invested
$59.94
Value
$59.94
PnL
+$0
Record
29%
866-2137 (3003)
Invested
$23.86
Value
$23.88
PnL
+$0.02
Record
40%
644-964 (1608)
Invested
$20.98
Value
$20.98
PnL
+$0
Record
78%
298-83 (381)
Invested
$1.07
Value
$1.07
PnL
+$0
Record
41%
324-472 (796)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.