Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 19 of 19 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will TJ Rumfield win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award?

19 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $4 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$3.94

Combined PnL

-$152.42

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

19 of 19 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)19 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes19 traders

Total Value$3.94

Total Shares7,887

Combined PnL-$152.42

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

19 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Late

82h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 19

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yes	$1.08	$1.08	-$45.83	58% 15835-11510 (27345)
GO godblessme2026CTR<$100	Yes	$1.08	$1.08	-$45.83	38% 7334-11770 (19104)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$1.64	$0.72	-$30.57	71% 13965-5636 (19601)
CO cowcatCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$4.22	$0.25	-$3.96	48% 1991-2135 (4126)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$6.47	$0.19	-$6.28	32% 3290-7152 (10442)
CosmicCedarCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.28	$0.13	-$0.13	51% 1101-1076 (2177)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$1.95	$0.12	-$5.18	42% 920-1262 (2182)
KL klli27CTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.02	$0.07	-$3.07	30% 503-1182 (1685)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$0.21	$0.07	-$2.95	53% 12588-11025 (23613)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$1.76	$0.06	-$2.61	38% 7178-11796 (18974)
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.04	$0.04	-$1.68	22% 369-1344 (1713)
NO northstockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.47	$0.03	-$0.44	40% 256-391 (647)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.03	$0.03	-$1.06	17% 1362-6594 (7956)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yes	$0.02	$0.02	-$0.77	25% 483-1460 (1943)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.02	$0.02	-$0.65	23% 1809-6061 (7870)
VA vamosgamingCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0	$0.01	-$0.48	18% 245-1134 (1379)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yes	$0.01	$0.01	-$0.42	39% 320-506 (826)
SP SPLPBCTR<$100	Yes	$0.01	$0.01	-$0.29	24% 798-2568 (3366)
FO fourcoin15mCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0	$0.01	-$0.21	39% 5792-9168 (14960)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.08

PnL

-$45.83

Record

58%

15835-11510 (27345)

godblessme2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.08

PnL

-$45.83

Record

38%

7334-11770 (19104)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.64

Value

$0.72

PnL

-$30.57

Record

71%

13965-5636 (19601)

cowcatCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.22

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$3.96

Record

48%

1991-2135 (4126)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.47

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$6.28

Record

32%

3290-7152 (10442)

CosmicCedarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.28

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$0.13

Record

51%

1101-1076 (2177)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.95

Value

$0.12

PnL

-$5.18

Record

42%

920-1262 (2182)

klli27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$3.07

Record

30%

503-1182 (1685)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.21

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$2.95

Record

53%

12588-11025 (23613)

korda77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.76

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$2.61

Record

38%

7178-11796 (18974)

VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$1.68

Record

22%

369-1344 (1713)

northstockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.47

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.44

Record

40%

256-391 (647)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.06

Record

17%

1362-6594 (7956)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.77

Record

25%

483-1460 (1943)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.65

Record

23%

1809-6061 (7870)

vamosgamingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.48

Record

18%

245-1134 (1379)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.42

Record

39%

320-506 (826)

SPLPBCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.29

Record

24%

798-2568 (3366)

fourcoin15mCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.21

Record

39%

5792-9168 (14960)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

19 of 19 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)19 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

19 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Late

82h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 19

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.