Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (97%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 2.7¢ · $47 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$47.26
$11.64
Research grade
AvoidYes at 3%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 66%
Freshness
Late
154h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GI GingerMcKenna<$100 | Noavg 82.5¢ | $16.54 | $19.5 | +$2.96 | 34% 3946-7626 (11572) |
DO donthackmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $8.14 | $9.67 | +$1.53 | 55% 42187-34104 (76291) |
CR crckrCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $3.08 | $8.61 | +$5.53 | 26% 879-2469 (3348) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $2.91 | $5.87 | +$1.05 | 47% 1395-1562 (2957) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $3.04 | $3.61 | +$0.57 | 62% 35964-22478 (58442) |
Invested
$16.54
Value
$19.5
PnL
+$2.96
Record
34%
3946-7626 (11572)
Invested
$8.14
Value
$9.67
PnL
+$1.53
Record
55%
42187-34104 (76291)
Invested
$3.08
Value
$8.61
PnL
+$5.53
Record
26%
879-2469 (3348)
Invested
$2.91
Value
$5.87
PnL
+$1.05
Record
47%
1395-1562 (2957)
Invested
$3.04
Value
$3.61
PnL
+$0.57
Record
62%
35964-22478 (58442)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
2.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.