Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (60%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Tim O'Hare win the 2026 Tarrant County Judge election?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 40¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$4.8K
$934.49
42¢ → 40¢
-5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Late
633h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 paddaa | Noavg 46.3¢ | $2.0K | $2.6K | +$589.01 | 57% 818-626 (1444) |
 IstarothCTR | Yesavg 54¢ | $1.1K | $879.01 | -$264.2 | 23% 290-994 (1284) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 42.7¢ | $427.87 | $635.23 | +$207.37 | 53% 1116-997 (2113) |
 FrozenParasiteCTR | Yesavg 18.1¢ | $191.9 | $576.84 | +$384.95 | 55% 447-366 (813) |
 EsperanzasDESTROYERCTR<$100 | Yesavg 49.1¢ | $39.29 | $46.3 | +$7.01 | 56% 45-35 (80) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $19.23 | $29.59 | +$10.36 | 47% 2033-2250 (4283) |
paddaaInvested
$2,000
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$589.01
Record
57%
818-626 (1444)
IstarothCTRInvested
$1,143.21
Value
$879.01
PnL
-$264.2
Record
23%
290-994 (1284)
Invested
$427.87
Value
$635.23
PnL
+$207.37
Record
53%
1116-997 (2113)
FrozenParasiteCTRInvested
$191.9
Value
$576.84
PnL
+$384.95
Record
55%
447-366 (813)
EsperanzasDESTROYERCTR<$100Invested
$39.29
Value
$46.3
PnL
+$7.01
Record
56%
45-35 (80)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$19.23
Value
$29.59
PnL
+$10.36
Record
47%
2033-2250 (4283)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.