Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (74%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will "Thriller - Michael Jackson" be the #1 US song this week?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 26¢ · $590 held · ends Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 50%
$589.52
-$7.2
42.3¢ → 26¢
-39% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 26%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 74%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 62.2¢ | $194.32 | $256.54 | +$62.22 | 53% 6689-5886 (12575) |
SH shovelingdiggingCTR | Yesavg 43.4¢ | $306.2 | $218.69 | -$66.35 | 60% 314-210 (524) |
 KimchiCapitalCTR<$100 | Yesavg 39.3¢ | $76.97 | $77.5 | +$0.53 | 75% 540-176 (716) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $40.4 | $36.8 | -$3.6 | 18% 365-1635 (2000) |
Invested
$194.32
Value
$256.54
PnL
+$62.22
Record
53%
6689-5886 (12575)
Invested
$306.2
Value
$218.69
PnL
-$66.35
Record
60%
314-210 (524)
KimchiCapitalCTR<$100Invested
$76.97
Value
$77.5
PnL
+$0.53
Record
75%
540-176 (716)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$40.4
Value
$36.8
PnL
-$3.6
Record
18%
365-1635 (2000)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
26.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.