Will there be no next Qwen Max model (3.9+) release by November 30, 2026?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $973 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$972.92
$4.16
99.2¢ → 99.5¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 51%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DO donthackme | Noavg 99.8¢ | $291 | $291.07 | +$0.07 | 75% 27-9 (36) |
QW qwen300.fund | Noavg 99.8¢ | $208.46 | $207.71 | -$0.75 | 30% 2638-6194 (8832) |
SM smallreceipt | Noavg 98.6¢ | $182.49 | $183.98 | +$1.49 | 12% 49-371 (420) |
 balthazar | Noavg 99¢ | $118.8 | $119.78 | +$0.98 | 50% 4584-4495 (9079) |
BI Bigggggggg<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $78.84 | $78.57 | -$0.28 | 53% 1602-1414 (3016) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $68.21 | $70.92 | +$2.71 | 51% 80-78 (158) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $20.96 | $20.88 | -$0.07 | 78% 298-83 (381) |
Invested
$291
Value
$291.07
PnL
+$0.07
Record
75%
27-9 (36)
Invested
$208.46
Value
$207.71
PnL
-$0.75
Record
30%
2638-6194 (8832)
Invested
$182.49
Value
$183.98
PnL
+$1.49
Record
12%
49-371 (420)
balthazarInvested
$118.8
Value
$119.78
PnL
+$0.98
Record
50%
4584-4495 (9079)
Invested
$78.84
Value
$78.57
PnL
-$0.28
Record
53%
1602-1414 (3016)
Invested
$68.21
Value
$70.92
PnL
+$2.71
Record
51%
80-78 (158)
Invested
$20.96
Value
$20.88
PnL
-$0.07
Record
78%
298-83 (381)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.