Will there be no next Meta Muse Spark model release by November 30, 2026?

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (29%) · Yes at 70¢ · $772 held · ends Dec 1

Yes70¢No30¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 29%

Total Value

$771.97

Combined PnL

$13.6

Smart Money Entry

67.5¢ → 69.5¢

+3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes70%

No31%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$717.15

Total Shares991

Combined PnL+$6.39

No5 traders

Total Value$54.82

Total Shares188

Combined PnL+$7.2

Yes — 29%No — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

107h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271	Yesavg 65¢	$546.76	$590.15	+$43.39	23% 8533-28966 (37499)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Yesavg 77¢	$164	$127	-$37	55% 17610-14532 (32142)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 16.2¢	$13.63	$23.55	+$9.91	14% 9498-60732 (70230)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 42.4¢	$28.42	$11.01	+$2.28	30% 35278-83615 (118893)
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100	Noavg 28¢	$8.4	$8.25	-$0.15	34% 3942-7559 (11501)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Noavg 55¢	$10.9	$8.07	-$2.83	16% 1408-7550 (8958)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Noavg 44¢	$11.44	$3.94	-$2.01	16% 415-2223 (2638)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Yes

Invested

$546.76

Value

$590.15

PnL

+$43.39

Record

23%

8533-28966 (37499)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Yes

Invested

$164

Value

$127

PnL

-$37

Record

55%

17610-14532 (32142)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$13.63

Value

$23.55

PnL

+$9.91

Record

14%

9498-60732 (70230)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$28.42

Value

$11.01

PnL

+$2.28

Record

30%

35278-83615 (118893)

GingerMcKennaCTR<$100

Invested

$8.4

Value

$8.25

PnL

-$0.15

Record

34%

3942-7559 (11501)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Invested

$10.9

Value

$8.07

PnL

-$2.83

Record

16%

1408-7550 (8958)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Invested

$11.44

Value

$3.94

PnL

-$2.01

Record

16%

415-2223 (2638)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 70%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

107h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.3%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$40.19

Max Loss

-$100.00

140.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.