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Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was No — and it was correct. Winning outcome: No

Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by November 30, 2026?

Resolved No. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

12

No 75%

Total Value

$239.7

Combined PnL

$2.49

Smart Money Signal

No

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$239.7

Total Shares240

Combined PnL+$3.78

Yes3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares108

Combined PnL-$1.3

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO godblessme2026	Noavg 99¢	$153.42	$155	+$1.58	10% 15-138 (153)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 92.1¢	$72.51	$74.7	+$2.18	54% 19-16 (35)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$9.98	$10	+$0.02	77% 53-16 (69)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$1.3	—	-$1.3	— 2-15 (17)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 98.7¢	—	—	+$0	56% 47-37 (84)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	—	—	+$0	80% 61-15 (76)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	—	—	+$0	38% 88-145 (233)
AH aHjCz<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	—	—	+$0	72% 18-7 (25)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	—	—	+$0	46% 42-50 (92)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	—	—	+$0	— 2-0 (2)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	—	—	+$0	44% 46-59 (105)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yes	—	—	+$0	8% 3-37 (40)

Invested

$153.42

Value

$155

PnL

+$1.58

Record

10%

15-138 (153)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$72.51

Value

$74.7

PnL

+$2.18

Record

54%

19-16 (35)

Invested

$9.98

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.02

Record

77%

53-16 (69)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$1.3

Value

—

PnL

-$1.3

Record

—

2-15 (17)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

47-37 (84)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

80%

61-15 (76)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

88-145 (233)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

72%

18-7 (25)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

42-50 (92)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

—

2-0 (2)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

46-59 (105)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

8%

3-37 (40)

Smart Money Signal

No

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x7638e3f0...1ad784

Slug

will-there-be-no-next-fable-model-5pt2-release-by-november-30-2026

Traders in this Market

godblessme2026

No — $155

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

No — $74.7

luciebot

No — $10

LornaPredicts

Yes — $0

balthazar

No — $0

qwen300.fund

No — $0

cigarettes

No — $0

aHjCz

No — $0

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702

No — $0

Haradwaith

Yes — $0

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