Will there be no Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 69¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$4.2K
$41.12
67.2¢ → 69.4¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 67.4¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$8.4 | 23% 290-994 (1284) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 67.4¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$40.3 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 32.9¢ | $658 | $626.1 | -$31.9 | |
 wagwanshawty | Noavg 67.1¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$57.5 | — 4-5 (9) |
 Car | Noavg 67.6¢ | $269.51 | $259.24 | -$10.27 | 67% 4141-2004 (6145) |
 ScottyNooo | Noavg 67¢ | $198.71 | $192.61 | -$6.11 | 50% 1532-1505 (3037) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$2,006
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$8.4
Record
23%
290-994 (1284)
Both legs:
wagwanshawtyInvested
$1,677.5
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$57.5
Record
—
4-5 (9)
CarInvested
$269.51
Value
$259.24
PnL
-$10.27
Record
67%
4141-2004 (6145)
ScottyNoooInvested
$198.71
Value
$192.61
PnL
-$6.11
Record
50%
1532-1505 (3037)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.