Will there be no GPT Astra 6.1+ release by November 30, 2026?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 82¢ · $3K held · ends Dec 1

Yes18¢No82¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$236.7

Smart Money Entry

83.3¢ → 81.7¢

-2% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes18%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares3,592

Combined PnL-$44.28

Yes1 trader

Total Value$21.56

Total Shares119

Combined PnL+$280.97

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+29 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Late

56h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495	Noavg 82.7¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$10.65	56% 18834-15002 (33836)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 83.1¢	$827.39	$654.46	-$11.88	53% 8619-7695 (16314)
SP SPLPB	Noavg 82.6¢	$428.69	$425.06	-$3.63	24% 798-2568 (3366)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F	Noavg 82.7¢	$346.59	$337.98	-$4.56	23% 1809-6061 (7870)
Haradwaith	Noavg 90.9¢	$295.65	$254.82	-$24.28	40% 6571-9852 (16423)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271ARB<$100	Noavg 85.9¢	$404.93	$115.7	+$32.03	26% 7359-21131 (28490)
└ No leg	Noavg 85.9¢	$88.36	$84.22	-$119.53
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 8.2¢	$14.24	$31.48	+$151.56
WA WarriorH<$100	Noavg 87.9¢	$82.38	$80.27	-$2.11	17% 1362-6594 (7956)
GI GingerMcKenna<$100	Noavg 44.5¢	$14.24	$26.4	+$12.37	37% 3303-5684 (8987)
balthazarCTR	Yesavg 7.6¢	$1.6K	$21.56	+$280.97	52% 31055-29024 (60079)
LP lpgb<$100	Noavg 61.2¢	$1.15	$1.61	+$0.46	27% 614-1677 (2291)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495

Invested

$1,174.34

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$10.65

Record

56%

18834-15002 (33836)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$827.39

Value

$654.46

PnL

-$11.88

Record

53%

8619-7695 (16314)

SPLPB

Invested

$428.69

Value

$425.06

PnL

-$3.63

Record

24%

798-2568 (3366)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F

Invested

$346.59

Value

$337.98

PnL

-$4.56

Record

23%

1809-6061 (7870)

Haradwaith

Invested

$295.65

Value

$254.82

PnL

-$24.28

Record

40%

6571-9852 (16423)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271ARB<$100

Invested

$404.93

Value

$115.7

PnL

+$32.03

Record

26%

7359-21131 (28490)

Both legs:

No$88.3685.9¢-$119.53

Yes$14.248.2¢+$151.56

WarriorH<$100

Invested

$82.38

Value

$80.27

PnL

-$2.11

Record

17%

1362-6594 (7956)

GingerMcKenna<$100

Invested

$14.24

Value

$26.4

PnL

+$12.37

Record

37%

3303-5684 (8987)

balthazarCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,647.38

Value

$21.56

PnL

+$280.97

Record

52%

31055-29024 (60079)

lpgb<$100

Invested

$1.15

Value

$1.61

PnL

+$0.46

Record

27%

614-1677 (2291)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+29 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Late

56h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

89% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.3%

81.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.