Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (86%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 14¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
No
4
No 75%
$1.6K
-$44.48
74.8¢ → 14¢
-81% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 14%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 86%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KI KiruaTrading | Yesavg 26.7¢ | $429.83 | $835.08 | +$784.94 | 56% 258-201 (459) |
 IstarothCTR | Noavg 69.5¢ | $678.32 | $660.87 | -$11.09 | 23% 288-962 (1250) |
 Gemini456CTR | Noavg 85.6¢ | $977.88 | $68.44 | -$818.02 | 72% 265-101 (366) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Noavg 15¢ | $4.5 | $4.2 | -$0.3 | 53% 6405-5609 (12014) |
Invested
$429.83
Value
$835.08
PnL
+$784.94
Record
56%
258-201 (459)
IstarothCTRInvested
$678.32
Value
$660.87
PnL
-$11.09
Record
23%
288-962 (1250)
Gemini456CTRInvested
$977.88
Value
$68.44
PnL
-$818.02
Record
72%
265-101 (366)
Invested
$4.5
Value
$4.2
PnL
-$0.3
Record
53%
6405-5609 (12014)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
14.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.