Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (68%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will there be fewer than 3 ChatGPT outages in November 2026?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 32¢ · $59 held · ends Dec 1

Yes68¢No32¢Ends Tue, Dec 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$59.44

Combined PnL

-$4.64

Research grade

NeutralNo at 32%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 68%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes68%

No32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$29.59

Total Shares30

Combined PnL-$0.3

No4 traders

Total Value$29.85

Total Shares68

Combined PnL-$4.35

Yes — 20%No — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SulkingCrypto<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$29.89	$29.59	-$0.3	— 1-9 (10)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Noavg 40¢	$11.62	$10.65	-$0.98	— 1-10 (11)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Noavg 43¢	$12.36	$10.53	-$1.84	— 0-10 (10)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$7.6	$6.5	-$1.1	5% 18-315 (333)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 39¢	$2.61	$2.18	-$0.44	37% 2788-4826 (7614)

SulkingCrypto<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.89

Value

$29.59

PnL

-$0.3

Record

—

1-9 (10)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Invested

$11.62

Value

$10.65

PnL

-$0.98

Record

—

1-10 (11)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Invested

$12.36

Value

$10.53

PnL

-$1.84

Record

—

0-10 (10)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Invested

$7.6

Value

$6.5

PnL

-$1.1

Record

18-315 (333)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$2.61

Value

$2.18

PnL

-$0.44

Record

37%

2788-4826 (7614)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 32%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 68%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.9%

32.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$195.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

295.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.