Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will there be exactly 9 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $168 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$167.66

Combined PnL

-$154.37

Smart Money Entry

16.6¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$166.03

Total Shares166

Combined PnL+$0.17

Yes6 traders

Total Value$1.64

Total Shares886

Combined PnL-$154.54

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO northdrawer<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$79.91	$79.96	+$0.05	28% 987-2588 (3575)
GR graynotebook19<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$74.86	$74.96	+$0.11	26% 909-2537 (3446)
E4 e46m3<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$11.1	$11.1	+$0.01	43% 2587-3438 (6025)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$49.32	$1.18	-$48.14	46% 4888-5757 (10645)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$85.78	$0.21	-$77.13	30% 3006-7182 (10188)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$6.57	$0.16	-$6.42	13% 51-350 (401)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$22.37	$0.06	-$22.29	38% 1423-2322 (3745)
HA haveagooddayCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$0.57	$0.01	-$0.55	40% 1508-2235 (3743)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0.01	$0.01	-$0.01	29% 126-306 (432)

northdrawer<$100

Invested

$79.91

Value

$79.96

PnL

+$0.05

Record

28%

987-2588 (3575)

graynotebook19<$100

Invested

$74.86

Value

$74.96

PnL

+$0.11

Record

26%

909-2537 (3446)

e46m3<$100

Invested

$11.1

Value

$11.1

PnL

+$0.01

Record

43%

2587-3438 (6025)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.32

Value

$1.18

PnL

-$48.14

Record

46%

4888-5757 (10645)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$85.78

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$77.13

Record

30%

3006-7182 (10188)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.57

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$6.42

Record

13%

51-350 (401)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.37

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$22.29

Record

38%

1423-2322 (3745)

haveagooddayCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.57

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.55

Record

40%

1508-2235 (3743)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.01

Record

29%

126-306 (432)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.