Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 74¢ · $308 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$307.61
$56.81
58.2¢ → 74¢
+27% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yesavg 50.5¢ | $108.5 | $159.09 | +$50.6 | 57% 15198-11650 (26848) |
LI lissartter | Yesavg 67¢ | $186.59 | $140.59 | +$6.87 | 42% 5180-7105 (12285) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 25.4¢ | $30.97 | $7.93 | -$0.66 | 57% 12909-9833 (22742) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.