Will there be between 20 and 24 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 95¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$2.1K
$16.3
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-40 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
611h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Udonsan | Noavg 84.6¢ | $2.0K | $2.1K | +$97.79 | 77% 222-65 (287) |
 RememberAmalekCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $64.39 | $33.51 | -$30.88 | 56% 955-755 (1710) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 35¢ | $70 | $14 | -$49.3 | 56% 15238-11764 (27002) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $1.11 | $1.94 | +$0.83 | 47% 2029-2247 (4276) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.8¢ | $5.35 | $1.26 | -$2.14 | 57% 13138-10013 (23151) |
UdonsanInvested
$1,980.95
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$97.79
Record
77%
222-65 (287)
RememberAmalekCTR<$100Invested
$64.39
Value
$33.51
PnL
-$30.88
Record
56%
955-755 (1710)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100Invested
$70
Value
$14
PnL
-$49.3
Record
56%
15238-11764 (27002)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$1.11
Value
$1.94
PnL
+$0.83
Record
47%
2029-2247 (4276)
Invested
$5.35
Value
$1.26
PnL
-$2.14
Record
57%
13138-10013 (23151)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.