Will there be between 15 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on October 31?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $227 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$227.3
$9.01
94.3¢ → 99.6¢
+6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DO donthackme<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $99.87 | $99.97 | +$0.17 | 68% 13184-6208 (19392) |
88 881112<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $74.82 | $86.61 | +$11.79 | 36% 590-1045 (1635) |
PL plainfolder<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $39.75 | $39.82 | +$0.07 | 31% 4457-9735 (14192) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $3.91 | $0.9 | -$3.01 | 17% 4495-21985 (26480) |
Invested
$99.87
Value
$99.97
PnL
+$0.17
Record
68%
13184-6208 (19392)
Invested
$74.82
Value
$86.61
PnL
+$11.79
Record
36%
590-1045 (1635)
Invested
$39.75
Value
$39.82
PnL
+$0.07
Record
31%
4457-9735 (14192)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$3.91
Value
$0.9
PnL
-$3.01
Record
17%
4495-21985 (26480)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.